Skip to content
Teniel Trades
All analysis
FuturesJul 5, 20266 min read

CL Crude: Two Scenarios Into Inventory

Where I am wrong, where I am right, and how I am sizing around the event. Not a prediction — a plan.

Futures · illustrativechart placeholder

Thesis

Price is respecting the higher-timeframe structure, and the setups I care about are still working. I'm building around the levels below, sizing conservatively, and letting the tape confirm.

Key levels

  • Support: the last defended demand pocket where I'd expect the first reaction.
  • Pivot: the level that flips my working bias intraday.
  • Resistance: supply I want to see broken before I press.

Possible scenarios

Base case. Continuation while price holds the pivot. First target into the prior swing, second target open.

Alternate case. Rejection at resistance, rotation back to support. I treat that as range, not reversal, until proven otherwise.

Invalidation

A daily close below support ends the thesis. That's not a stop, it's a signal to step aside and reassess the map.

Conclusion

I'm not predicting the next print — I'm preparing for the plausible ones. The job is to be sized correctly for whichever scenario unfolds.